Some guy took 12,000 MMA fights and fed them to a computer, Here’s what he discovered

[Drock]

It's pretty rude to address a person that took the time to analyze 12,000 MMA fights as 'some guy.' His name is Vik Singh, and his official title is 'some guy that is a glutton for data mining.' In short, he took a database of 11,886 fight records and fed them into a supercomputer to identify any trends with winning and losing an MMA bout. He extracted a gargantuan amount of information, and it seems like he will use this data to make an absurd amount of money in online betting. You can check out his scientific blog right here to see what he intends to do with this data, but check out the extraordinary facts he discovered in his arm-chair mathematical experiment. [Source]
Top UFC Insights
Fighters older than 32 years of age will more likely lose
This was validated in 173 out of 277 (62%) fights*


Fighters who have won 3x or more decisions than their opponent will more likely win
This was validated in 142 out of 235 (60%) fights*


Fighters younger than their opponents by 3 or more years in age will more likely win
This was validated in 165 out of 278 (59%) fights*


Fighters who haven’t fought in more than 210 days will more likely lose
This was validated in 162 out of 276 (59%) fights*


Fighters taller than their opponents by 3% will more likely win
This was validated in 159 out of 274 (58%) fights*


Fighters who have lost less by submission than their opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 75 out of 119 (63%) fights*


Fighters who have lost 6 or more fights will more likely lose
This was validated in 172 out of 291 (60%) fights*


Fighters who have lost 2 or more KOs will more likely lose
This was validated in 54 out of 84 (64%) fights*


Fighters from Japan are more likely to lose
This was validated in 36 out of 51 (71%) fights*


Fighters with a wrestling background vs fighters who don’t have one more likely win
This was validated in 72 out of 122 (60%) fights


Top Insights over All Fights


Fighters currently on a 3 fight (or better) winning streak will more likely win
This was validated in 1172 out of 1884 (62%) fights*


Fighters with 3x or more wins than their opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 1395 out of 2387 (58%) fights*


Fighters who have lost 7 or more times will more likely lose
This was validated in 1305 out of 2299 (57%) fights*


Fighters with no jiu jitsu in their background versus fighters who do have it more likely lose
This was validated in 334 out of 568 (59%) fights*


Fighters who have lost by submission 5 or more times will more likely lose
This was validated in 580 out of 986 (59%) fights*


Fighters in the Middleweight division who fought their last fight more recently will more likely win
This was validated in 272 out of 446 (61%) fights*


Fighters in the Lightweight division fighting 6 foot tall fighters (or higher) will more likely win
This was validated in 50 out of 83 (60%) fights

story at
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[Rich Davie]

Wow... that's pretty interesting !

I'm gonna sticky this one.

[Misfit]

just now seeing this, pretty damn cool

[Maggi]

I wonder if this will save me in our next prediction contest?

[SkyDigger]

I wonder if this will save me in our next prediction contest?

I'd rather go by gut instinct, except this one...

Fighters from Japan are more likely to lose
This was validated in 36 out of 51 (71%) fights*

I stopped betting on Japanese fighters awhile ago...

[Rich Davie]

Damn... I forgot about this thread !

I'm gonna have to take a look at this before the next Fantasy MMA Challenges... I could have used some big help with my Predictions for UFC 139.

My picks were dreadful... 6-6 with 30 Points.

[Red Tex]

Great article or statistic line. Very interesting.

The one telling stat that was the highest % was that most fighters from Japan lose 71% of the time, and that makes me laugh because I've trashed Japanese fighters for years and called them way over hyped again and again in discussions. That's a very high % right there and it totally indicates how inferior these guys are compared to the best of the best competition around the world.

[Skycosis]

I'll try relying on this for my next two or three events, see how will I do

[Skycosis]

Just pulling this back up to the new posts if anyone wants to use this as a sort of consultant for their picks.

[Rich Davie]

I think I might try this out.