• Fight Finishes Typically Occur In Round 1 or Round 2

    by
    Rich Davie
    Published on 07-20-2012 02:17 PM
    3 Comments Comments
    I dig the hell out of the stats site Breakdown Fights.com... I love that most of their features are interactive.

    Here is some data of fight finishes by round put together by "Mike the Geek" :

    Fight Finishes by Round

    JANUARY 3, 2012

    Sometimes it isn’t enough to predict how a fight will finish (KO, submission, or decision). Sometimes we want to know in what round a fight will finish.

    To answer that question we looked at all 3-round fights in the Fight Metric database that were won by either KO/TKO (left graph) or submission (right graph) and calculated the % that ended each round:


    The graphs show that finishes most often come in the first round. Finishes in the 3rd round are very uncommon.

    What about 5-round fights?


    Similar story. About 2/3 of finishes come in either round 1 or 2. Finishes in the championship rounds are rare.

    Conclusion: whether you’re betting props or just putting your fight picking skills to the test, picking a fight finish in late rounds is (statistically) a bad bet. If you think that the fight is going to finish by KO/TKO or submission, the smart money is on an early round victory.

    Mike the Geek

    http://www.breakdownfights.com/?p=2470
    This article was originally published in forum thread: Fight Finishes Typically Occur In Round 1 or Round 2 started by Rich Davie View original post
    Comments 3 Comments
    1. BluenoseGreig's Avatar
      BluenoseGreig - 07-20-2012, 06:09 PM
      So this is your latest toy to help in the PC's!!!

      This is actually very interesting, good find.
    1. Rich Davie's Avatar
      Rich Davie - 07-20-2012, 08:02 PM


      Yeah it is !

      I dig the hell out of all of the stat info.
    1. Drock's Avatar
      Drock - 07-20-2012, 08:04 PM
      This makes sense really not to surprised by this at all